The test the cap set itself

From 23 September 2024 most of Byron Shire limits non-hosted short-term rental, a whole dwelling let with the host away, to 60 days a year. Before that it was 180, the limit that still applies in the Ballina area. The planning department’s Byron Shire page says the cap aims to assist residents in finding long-term rental properties or affordable housing options. It also says the change phased in: it applied to new registrations from 23 September 2024 and to existing ones from the next renewal date that takes place on or after 23 September 2024, a transition of up to 12 months. So the cap has bitten on every registered dwelling outside the two 365-day precincts only since late September 2025.

When we explained the cap in July, we said we would track the rental data and report the cap against that purpose. This is the first of those reports. If homes moved from holiday letting to tenants in any number, the place it should show is the count of rental bonds, because NSW rental bonds are lodged with the state, and the NSW Department of Communities and Justice builds quarterly statistics by council area from the lodgement forms.

Live bonds: flat since the cap began

DCJ’s rent tables give “total bonds held”, the live bonds on the last day of each quarter. It is the nearest thing the state publishes to a count of bonded private rentals. In Byron it rose from 3,255 to 3,363 in the year before the cap, September 2023 to September 2024. Over the seven quarters since, it has stayed between 3,308 and 3,365, ending June 2026 at 3,339, which is 24 fewer than when the cap began.

Ballina shows the same shape. It rose from 3,829 to 4,034 in the year before, peaked at 4,082 in June 2025 and ended June 2026 at 3,954. Tweed went from 7,473 to 7,373 and Lismore from 3,656 to 3,671 over the same seven quarters. Across NSW the count kept climbing, from 875,514 to 896,797.

Change in total bonds held, end of September 2024 to end of June 2026: Byron down 0.7 per cent, Ballina down 2.0, Tweed down 1.3, Lismore up 0.4, all NSW up 2.4. Byron −0.7% Ballina −2.0% Tweed −1.3% Lismore +0.4% All NSW +2.4% 0
Change in total bonds held, from the end of September 2024 (the quarter Byron’s cap began) to the end of June 2026. Byron is 3,363 to 3,339; Ballina 4,034 to 3,954; Tweed 7,473 to 7,373; Lismore 3,656 to 3,671; NSW 875,514 to 896,797. Source: DCJ rent tables, LGA sheet, September 2024 and June 2026 quarters.

New bonds: down in Byron, and down more next door

New bonds lodged count fresh tenancies started in the quarter. They move with the seasons, so we compare whole years. The year to June 2024 is entirely before the cap; the year to June 2026 is entirely after it began, and mostly after the transition ended. In Byron, new bonds fell from 1,374 to 1,171, down 14.8 per cent. In Ballina they fell from 1,560 to 1,114, down 28.6 per cent. Tweed fell 10.8 per cent, Lismore 15.4 per cent and NSW as a whole 2.3 per cent.

Change in new bonds lodged, the year to June 2026 against the year to June 2024: Byron down 14.8 per cent, Ballina down 28.6, Tweed down 10.8, Lismore down 15.4, all NSW down 2.3. Byron −14.8% Ballina −28.6% Tweed −10.8% Lismore −15.4% All NSW −2.3% 0
New bonds lodged in the four quarters to June 2026 against the four quarters to June 2024. Byron is 1,374 to 1,171; the other sums are in the methodology note. Source: DCJ rent tables, LGA sheet, eight quarterly workbooks.

A fall in new bonds is not a fall in rental homes. Fewer new bonds can mean tenants are moving less often, which in a tight market they may well be, as much as it can mean fewer homes to let. That is why the live count above matters more. What the two together say is narrower than either side of the short-stay argument might like: there is no rise in Byron’s bonded rentals in these figures, and Byron has not moved apart from its neighbours since the cap began.

Rents: up everywhere, and Byron’s headline rise is not the largest

DCJ’s median is the middle weekly rent on the new bonds lodged that quarter, not the rent every tenant pays. Between the June 2024 and June 2026 quarters it rose from $843 to $950 in Byron (12.7 per cent), $673 to $780 in Ballina (15.9 per cent), $720 to $850 in Tweed (18.1 per cent), $490 to $550 in Lismore (12.2 per cent) and $650 to $720 across NSW (10.8 per cent).

Houses alone tell a sharper story in Byron. The median on a new house bond went from $900 to $1,100, up 22.2 per cent, against $750 to $850 in Ballina, up 13.3 per cent. A median of new leases moves with which homes happen to be let that quarter, so one quarter’s figure is a weak signal, but Byron’s house median has been $950 or more in each of the five quarters since June 2025, and was $900 or less in each of the six quarters to December 2024.

Byron and Ballina, quarter by quarter, as first published by DCJ
QuarterByron new bondsByron bonds heldByron medianBallina new bondsBallina bonds heldBallina median
Sep 20233623,255$7704133,829$650
Dec 20233063,287$7953863,877$650
Mar 20243643,335$8333913,943$695
Jun 20243423,296$8433703,984$673
Sep 20243653,363$8003434,034$700
Dec 20243043,343$8503184,014$720
Mar 20252713,308$9003614,026$720
Jun 20253413,337$8503444,082$730
Sep 20253483,365$8533044,059$750
Dec 20252553,313$9002473,995$775
Mar 20262853,338$9003003,990$750
Jun 20262833,339$9502633,954$780

All dwelling types, all bedroom counts. Median is the weekly rent for new bonds lodged in the quarter. The cap began on 23 September 2024, a week before the end of the September 2024 quarter, and phased in to September 2025.

What these figures cannot show

They cannot show what would have happened without the cap. Byron’s count might have fallen without it, and the cap might have held it level; or it might have made no difference. Ballina is a useful comparison because its 180-day limit did not change, but it is not a twin. Other things changed across the state in these two years too: the planning department’s short-term rental page lists rental law changes announced in July 2024, including ending no-grounds evictions, which it says were expected to begin the following year.

They cannot follow a dwelling. A bond count does not say whether a house that left holiday letting was then let to a tenant, sold, lived in by its owner or left empty. DCJ’s own notes say total bonds held does not equal the total number of rental properties, because some homes are vacant at any time and some lettings take no bond. And the state framework exempts bookings of 21 consecutive days or more from the day limits, so a dwelling can leave the 60-day count without either joining the bond count or leaving short-stay use.

The figure that would answer the question directly is how many Byron dwellings are on the state’s short-term rental register, and for how many nights, before and after the cap. As at 6 October 2026 we could not find it. The planning department’s short-term rental page, its Byron Shire page, the Planning Portal’s STRA page and the department’s Data and resources page publish no register counts; the department’s page says host and premises details are not available to the general public, and that the government is reviewing the framework.

Our read

This is opinion, built on the figures above. The cap’s stated aim was more long-term rentals for residents. Seven quarters in, the one published measure that should move if that were happening at scale has not moved, in Byron or relative to Ballina. That is not proof the cap failed: Byron’s live count moved by as much as 67 in a single quarter before the cap, so a few dozen homes returned to tenants could hide inside it, and the cap only reached every registration last September. But the claim that it is returning homes to locals in numbers cannot rest on these figures yet. The state holds the register that would settle it. Publishing Byron’s registration counts, and its nights let, each quarter would cost little, and a policy chosen for one shire on housing grounds ought to be judged on housing data the public can see.

We will add the September 2026 quarter when DCJ publishes it, the first in which the cap has applied to every registration for a full year.

Our earlier piece, Byron has the tightest short-stay cap in the state, explains how the caps work and where they do not apply.

How we sourced this

Every figure comes from DCJ’s quarterly rent tables, downloaded on 6 October 2026 from DCJ’s site: twelve workbooks, the September 2023 to June 2026 quarters, sheet “LGA” (Table 1, Weekly rents statistics by NSW Local Government Area), the row where Dwelling Types and Number of Bedrooms are both “Total” for each council. We use each quarter as first published, not later revisions. Byron’s June 2026 row is row 582 of rent-tables-june-2026-quarter.xlsx (median $950, 283 new bonds, 3,339 bonds held), and DCJ’s own annual-change columns on that row (11.76 per cent on the median, minus 17.01 per cent on new bonds) match our arithmetic against the June 2025 workbook ($850, 341). No figure we use for these councils is suppressed or flagged “s” (30 or fewer bonds); Byron’s smallest quarterly count here is 255. We start at September 2023 because the workbooks note data quality issues in the September 2022 quarter.

The sums. Byron new bonds, year to June 2024: 362 + 306 + 364 + 342 = 1,374; year to June 2026: 348 + 255 + 285 + 283 = 1,171; 1,171 ÷ 1,374 = 0.852, a fall of 14.8 per cent. Ballina: 413 + 386 + 391 + 370 = 1,560 and 304 + 247 + 300 + 263 = 1,114, a fall of 28.6 per cent. Tweed 2,458 to 2,193 (10.8 per cent); Lismore 1,156 to 978 (15.4 per cent); NSW 309,037 to 301,971 (2.3 per cent). For the year to June 2025, the transition year, the totals are Byron 1,281, Ballina 1,366, Tweed 2,350, Lismore 999 and NSW 315,741. Bonds held, September 2024 to June 2026: Byron 3,339 − 3,363 = −24 (0.7 per cent); Ballina 3,954 − 4,034 = −80 (2.0 per cent); Tweed −100 (1.3 per cent); Lismore +15 (0.4 per cent); NSW +21,283 (2.4 per cent). The year before: Byron 3,363 − 3,255 = +108; Ballina 4,034 − 3,829 = +205. Medians, June 2024 to June 2026: 950 ÷ 843 = 1.127; 780 ÷ 673 = 1.159; 850 ÷ 720 = 1.181; 550 ÷ 490 = 1.122; 720 ÷ 650 = 1.108. Byron houses 1,100 ÷ 900 = 1.222; Ballina houses 850 ÷ 750 = 1.133. Percentages are rounded to one decimal place.

The cap’s dates, its 180-day predecessor, the transition and its stated aim are from the planning department’s Byron Shire page (updated 5 May 2025); the 21-day exemption, the Ballina limit and the review from its short-term rental page. We have not contacted DCJ, the planning department or Byron Shire Council.

Sources

The working. AI read the documents and drafted this story, under rules people set and answer for, working from the primary sources below. How we work.

  1. NSW Department of Communities and Justice, Rent and Sales Report (web page, last updated 18 August 2026, read 6 October 2026): the current rent tables and the link to previous reports.
  2. NSW Department of Communities and Justice, Explanatory notes rent (web page, read 6 October 2026): what the bond data is drawn from, the suppression rule, the definition of the median and of total bonds held.
  3. NSW Department of Communities and Justice, Rent tables, September 2023 quarter (Excel workbook, reporting period July to September 2023, downloaded 6 October 2026): sheet LGA, all-dwellings rows for Byron (row 588), Ballina (row 114), Tweed (row 3483), Lismore (row 2103) and NSW (row 10), and the Byron and Ballina house rows.
  4. NSW Department of Communities and Justice, Rent tables, December 2023 quarter (Excel workbook, reporting period October to December 2023, downloaded 6 October 2026): sheet LGA, all-dwellings rows for Byron (row 583), Ballina (row 112), Tweed (row 3479), Lismore (row 2099) and NSW (row 10), and the Byron and Ballina house rows.
  5. NSW Department of Communities and Justice, Rent tables, March 2024 quarter (Excel workbook, reporting period January to March 2024, downloaded 6 October 2026): sheet LGA, all-dwellings rows for Byron (row 583), Ballina (row 112), Tweed (row 3473), Lismore (row 2097) and NSW (row 10), and the Byron and Ballina house rows.
  6. NSW Department of Communities and Justice, Rent tables, June 2024 quarter (Excel workbook, reporting period April to June 2024, downloaded 6 October 2026): sheet LGA, all-dwellings rows for Byron (row 582), Ballina (row 112), Tweed (row 3468), Lismore (row 2092) and NSW (row 10), and the Byron and Ballina house rows.
  7. NSW Department of Communities and Justice, Rent tables, September 2024 quarter (Excel workbook, reporting period July to September 2024, downloaded 6 October 2026): sheet LGA, all-dwellings rows for Byron (row 582), Ballina (row 112), Tweed (row 3462), Lismore (row 2088) and NSW (row 10), and the Byron and Ballina house rows.
  8. NSW Department of Communities and Justice, Rent tables, December 2024 quarter (Excel workbook, reporting period October to December 2024, downloaded 6 October 2026): sheet LGA, all-dwellings rows for Byron (row 580), Ballina (row 111), Tweed (row 3464), Lismore (row 2089) and NSW (row 10), and the Byron and Ballina house rows.
  9. NSW Department of Communities and Justice, Rent tables, March 2025 quarter (Excel workbook, reporting period January to March 2025, downloaded 6 October 2026): sheet LGA, all-dwellings rows for Byron (row 582), Ballina (row 112), Tweed (row 3462), Lismore (row 2090) and NSW (row 10), and the Byron and Ballina house rows.
  10. NSW Department of Communities and Justice, Rent tables, June 2025 quarter (Excel workbook, reporting period April to June 2025, downloaded 6 October 2026): sheet LGA, all-dwellings rows for Byron (row 583), Ballina (row 112), Tweed (row 3464), Lismore (row 2093) and NSW (row 10), and the Byron and Ballina house rows.
  11. NSW Department of Communities and Justice, Rent tables, September 2025 quarter (Excel workbook, reporting period July to September 2025, downloaded 6 October 2026): sheet LGA, all-dwellings rows for Byron (row 581), Ballina (row 112), Tweed (row 3456), Lismore (row 2086) and NSW (row 10), and the Byron and Ballina house rows.
  12. NSW Department of Communities and Justice, Rent tables, December 2025 quarter (Excel workbook, reporting period October to December 2025, downloaded 6 October 2026): sheet LGA, all-dwellings rows for Byron (row 580), Ballina (row 112), Tweed (row 3454), Lismore (row 2083) and NSW (row 10), and the Byron and Ballina house rows.
  13. NSW Department of Communities and Justice, Rent tables, March 2026 quarter (Excel workbook, reporting period January to March 2026, downloaded 6 October 2026): sheet LGA, all-dwellings rows for Byron (row 581), Ballina (row 112), Tweed (row 3448), Lismore (row 2082) and NSW (row 10), and the Byron and Ballina house rows.
  14. NSW Department of Communities and Justice, Rent tables, June 2026 quarter (Excel workbook, reporting period April to June 2026, downloaded 6 October 2026): sheet LGA, all-dwellings rows for Byron (row 582), Ballina (row 112), Tweed (row 3438), Lismore (row 2078) and NSW (row 10), and the Byron and Ballina house rows.
  15. NSW Department of Planning, Housing and Infrastructure, Byron Shire (short-term rental accommodation page, updated 5 May 2025, read 6 October 2026): the 60-day cap from 23 September 2024, the previous 180-day limit, the phase-in on renewal, the 365-day precincts and the cap’s stated aim.
  16. NSW Department of Planning, Housing and Infrastructure, Short-term rental accommodation (web page, read 6 October 2026): the 180-day limit in the Ballina area, the 21-day exemption, the STRA Register and its privacy statement, the framework review, and the rental law changes announced in July 2024.
  17. NSW Planning Portal, Short Term Rental Accommodation (STRA) (web page, read 6 October 2026): the register’s host-facing page, which publishes no counts.
  18. NSW Department of Planning, Housing and Infrastructure, Data and resources (web page, read 6 October 2026): lists no short-term rental register dataset.

Read these figures differently, or hold register data for Byron? Tell us and we will check it against the documents and log the outcome here.