What the report says new homes should pay

Ballina's roads plan, prepared under section 7.11 of the Environmental Planning and Assessment Act, is the list of works the council charges development against. The current version, 4.2, dates from 2021 and looks ahead to 2036. Its costs, the report says, are mostly based on cost estimates prepared by consultants Cardno Eppell Olsen in December 2009, indexed each time by the ABS road and bridge construction index, and this indexation has not kept pace with actual cost increases in the Ballina region.

So the council had the traffic consultancy Bitzios model the shire's roads to 2046 and the quantity surveyors TCubed reprice the list. The report then runs an indicative calculation: 5,588 more dwellings between 2025 and 2046, a population rising from 50,025 to 64,063, and the development-funded share of the works divided across the daily trips that growth generates. It comes to $8,394 per trip end, which is $54,144 for a lot or dwelling counted at 6.45 trip ends (the report's single-dwelling rate) and $32,738 at 3.9 trip ends (its multi-dwelling rate). An administration charge sits on top.

Bars to scale. The two contribution rates are the report's indicative calculation (Table 6, item 10.1, Ballina Shire Council business paper, 24 September 2026, page 79), before the administration charge. The $20,000 cap is as the same report states it, un-indexed since 2011. Councillors resolved to prepare a draft from Tables 2 to 5; Table 6 is an example, not an adopted rate.

The council cannot charge that figure as things stand. In the report's words the plan will support any application to IPART for approval to levy development contributions above the unindexed $20,000 per lot/dwelling cap imposed by the NSW Government. The council's contributions consultants, GLN, had already recommended applying to IPART, a recommendation the report says the council endorsed on 25 June 2026, and GLN advised that any application would need current estimates from a quantity surveyor. That is what this repricing is for.

Where the $459 million sits

The proposed list has 20 lines, land components included, totalling $459,344,924. Contributions can only fund the share of a road that new development needs, so the report apportions each item under rules it has used since 2015: a road the current population does not need is charged 100 per cent to development; a road already busy is charged by the share of future traffic that growth adds. On that basis $377,491,769 falls to development and $81,853,155, about 18 per cent, is in the report's words a Gap to be funded by Council, from general revenue, loans or government grants if available.

Of $459.3 million in proposed road works, $377.5 million (82 per cent) is apportioned to development and $81.9 million (18 per cent) is left for the council to fund. Development: $377.5m 82 per cent Council: $81.9m 18 per cent
Proposed works, $459,344,924, split by the report's apportionment (Table 5, pages 76 to 78): $377,491,769 to development, $81,853,155 to council. Percentages are ours.

The report is plain about what follows if nothing changes: the current plan significantly undervalues the cost of future road infrastructure, and with it the contributions needed. And it does not pretend IPART fixes everything: Even if IPART approval is obtained, staged or partial implementation of higher contribution rates is likely to leave a substantial funding gap.

Why the prices moved

The report lists seven reasons the 2009 estimates fell behind: biodiversity offsets, the compressible soft soils under much of the shire that need preloading or controlled modulus columns, claims and land use restrictions under the Aboriginal Land Rights Act, current road and bridge standards and heavier design loads, the cost of approvals and conditions, flood immunity and maritime navigation clearances, and material and supply costs. Set the same items side by side and the jumps are large.

Four road items, cost in the 2021 plan against the 2026 updated cost: North Creek Road and Bridge $21.4 million to $85.9 million; Western Arterial $34.8 million to $81.8 million; Hutley Drive Extension $14.8 million to $31.8 million; Ross Lane Improvements West $5.2 million to $18.2 million. 2021 plan 2026 updated cost North Creek Road and Bridge $21.4m $85.9m Western Arterial $34.8m $81.8m Hutley Drive Extension $14.8m $31.8m Ross Lane Improvements, west $5.2m $18.2m
Bars to scale. 2021 figures: the current works schedule, version 4.2 (Table 1, pages 60 to 61), main item only. 2026 figures: TCubed's updated costs (Table 4, pages 74 to 75). Land components are excluded from both. The 2026 list names the arterial Western Arterial Option 4; the report does not set out whether its scope matches the 2021 item.

The North Creek Road and Bridge, which the report says gives a second direct connection between Lennox Head and Ballina, has roughly quadrupled. The Hutley Drive Extension has roughly doubled, and here the report is candid: On the basis of forecast traffic volumes alone, the Hutley Drive link is difficult to justify against its updated capital cost of $32 million. It keeps the link anyway, tied to the bridge, for the traffic it takes off the urbanised section of North Creek Road and Montwood Drive.

What stays, what goes, and when

The modelling ran the 2046 network twelve ways, with and without each big link. Three changes come out of it. The North Creek Road bridge, whose future the council deferred deciding in December 2025 pending exactly this modelling, stays in the proposed list, though given its high updated cost, construction should be staged as a longer-term project. The Barlows Road link would leave the contributions-funded list in favour of duplicating Tamarind Drive, partly because Tamarind Drive is a flood evacuation route and Barlows Road would flood more often; the report says Barlows Road may still be retained as a planned strategic road link outside contributions plan funding. And the report proposes replacing the roundabouts at Tamarind Drive and North Creek Road, and at Bangalow Road and Angels Beach Drive, with signalised intersections, plus a new 330 metre link from Tamarind Drive near Bicentennial Gardens to Southern Cross Drive to take load off the first of them.

Two items are proposed for deletion altogether: the eastern Ross Lane realignment, because Black Spot upgrades have done much of it and the Deadmans Creek bridge section is now funded by the NSW Reconstruction Authority, and a right-turn ban at Tamarind Drive and Southern Cross Drive, because the microsimulation indicates the right turn should be retained.

2025 to 2030

$106.6m

Duplicating the Tamarind Drive canal bridge and the River Street Fishery Creek bridge with their approaches, River Street dual lanes from Burns Point to the highway, North Creek Road dual lanes to Southern Cross Drive.

2030 to 2040

$221.7m

The Western Arterial, four kilometres of Tamarind Drive dual lanes from the Pacific Highway, Ross Lane west, Sandy Flat Road, the two signalised intersections, the Bicentennial link, The Coast Road roundabout.

2040 to 2046

$131.1m

North Creek Road and Bridge, the Hutley Drive Extension, climbing lanes on Tintenbar and Teven Roads, North Creek Road traffic calming.

Proposed staging from Table 4 (pages 74 to 75), land components included. The period sums are ours; the 20 items add to within $1 of the report's stated total. The two 2025 to 2030 bridge duplications are, the report says, current contracted works.

The report also tested a cheaper medium-term network, keeping the Western Arterial and deferring the bridge, Hutley Drive and Barlows Road. It concluded that version could be used as the basis for an affordable medium-term staged network configuration, while four links would still pass 18,000 vehicles a day, the rule-of-thumb limit the report gives for a two-lane road.

The highways Ballina does not control

The second part of the resolution was advocacy, not spending: completing the Wollongbar to Goonellabah deviation of the Bruxner Highway with dual lanes each way, a shared path and a full interchange at Sneaths Road; starting work on duplicating the Bruxner from Sneaths Road to the Pacific Highway at Teven; a shared path on future Bruxner duplications; and continued advocacy for south-facing ramps at the Cumbalum interchange. The modelling's case for the Bruxner is in one sentence.

For the Bruxner Highway, the 2046 modelling indicates weekday average volumes in excess of 25,000 vpd between Ballina and Alstonville, more than 21,000 vpd on the Alstonville Bypass, and volumes exceeding 30,000 vpd west of Wollongbar.

Item 10.1, Ballina Shire Council business paper, 24 September 2026, page 66. vpd is vehicles per day.

The Pacific Highway, by contrast, has the capacity, with no additional through lanes required within the modelling period. On the Cumbalum ramps, for which Transport for NSW gave a strategic budget estimate of $40 to $50 million in July 2020, the modelling is modest: with the full works list built, about 1,035 vehicles a day on the northbound off-ramp and 1,141 on the southbound on-ramp. The report keeps backing them on other grounds: The ramps remain warranted as a strategic resilience, emergency access, evacuation and local-access project. The Bruxner shared path request sits alongside the council's own Alstonville to Ballina shared path route, adopted in July.

Our read

This is opinion, built on the figures above. The useful thing the report does is put an honest price on the list. Since 2010 the plan has carried 2009 estimates nudged up by an index the council now says did not keep pace, and the report itself says the result understates what development should contribute. The repriced list makes the gap visible: $54,144 of development share per lot or dwelling on the report's example, against a $20,000 ceiling.

The harder question is the one the report leaves open. If IPART approves less than the full rate, or nothing, the difference does not disappear; it falls on the council's own revenue and borrowing, on grants, or on roads arriving later. The report already names its fallback, the cheaper medium-term network, and stages the most expensive links last. A Lennox Head or Ballina resident reading the draft when it is exhibited would do well to read the 2040 to 2046 column as the part most exposed to that risk, and the $81.9 million council share as a call on council funds, from rates, loans or grants, whatever IPART decides.

What happens next

  1. 11 December 2025 Council defers its decision on keeping or dropping the North Creek Road bridge until a report informed by the 2046 modelling.
  2. 25 June 2026 Council endorses its consultants' contributions recommendations, including applying to IPART to exceed the cap.
  3. 24 September 2026 Resolution 240926/18, unanimous: prepare an amended draft plan from Tables 2 to 5, and keep advocating for the state road upgrades.
  4. Next (the report gives no date) The draft plan goes on public exhibition, submissions are considered, and council decides whether to adopt it. An updated, costed plan is, the report says, an important part of the case for any IPART application.

The report says the formal exhibition will be used, with additional online and other communication activities, to consult on the road network as a whole. That exhibition is the point at which anyone with a view on the North Creek bridge, Barlows Road or the per-dwelling rate can put it on the record.

How we sourced this

Everything above comes from two Ballina Shire Council documents read on 8 October 2026: item 10.1 of the 24 September 2026 ordinary meeting business paper (pages 58 to 82, the staff report on traffic modelling to 2046 with its Tables 1 to 6), and the minutes of that meeting recording resolution 240926/18, its mover and seconder (Cr Phil Meehan and Cr Erin Karsten), the unanimous vote and Cr Therese Crollick's absence. Text was read from the PDFs' text layer. The resolution adopts the report's Tables 2 to 5 as the basis of a draft; Table 6's per-dwelling and per-trip figures are the report's indicative example and are reported as that. Our arithmetic: 82 and 18 per cent are $377,491,769 and $81,853,155 over $459,344,924; the three staging sums add Table 4's items by period, land included; the 2021 to 2026 comparison sets Table 1's main-item figures against Table 4's, excluding land. The $20,000 cap and the IPART route are as the council's report describes them; we have not read the NSW ministerial direction that sets the cap. The two Cumbalum ramp volumes are from the modelling run with the full current works list plus the ramps. Traffic volumes are modelled weekday daily averages for 2046, not counts. We have not contacted the council.

Sources

The working. AI read the documents and drafted this story, under rules people set and answer for, working from the primary sources below. How we work.

  1. Ballina Shire Council, Agenda and business papers, Ordinary Meeting, 24 September 2026 (PDF, 109 pages, downloaded and read 8 October 2026): item 10.1, Ballina Shire Strategic Road Network, Traffic Modelling to 2046, pages 58 to 82, including the plan history, the GLN and IPART background, the 18,000 vehicles a day threshold, the twelve model runs and their volumes, the Bruxner and Pacific Highway findings, the Cumbalum ramp volumes and the 2020 TfNSW estimate, the seven cost drivers, Tables 1 to 6, the financial and risk considerations, the engagement section and the recommendations.
  2. Ballina Shire Council, Minutes of the Ordinary Meeting, 24 September 2026 (PDF, 16 pages, downloaded and read 8 October 2026): resolution 240926/18 on item 10.1 in full, its mover and seconder, the unanimous vote and the absence recorded.

Building in Ballina Shire, on a road in this list, or read the tables differently? Tell us and we will check it against the documents and log the outcome.